基于事故树-层次分析法的原油储罐泄漏风险识别

doi:10.12388/j.issn.1673-2677.2023.03.012

新疆石油天然气 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 80-85.DOI: 10.12388/j.issn.1673-2677.2023.03.012

基于事故树-层次分析法的原油储罐泄漏风险识别

北京理工大学，北京海淀 100081

出版日期:2023-09-10 发布日期:2023-09-10
作者简介:赵耀（1991-），2019年毕业于北京理工大学安全科学与工程专业，博士，实验师，目前从事油气开采与储运过程安全研究。（Tel）15210616093（E-mail）zhaoyao0428@bit.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目“火灾爆炸痕迹与事故特征参量耦合关联方法研究”（2022YFC3006301）

Indentification for Leakage Risks of Crude Oil Tanks Based on Fault Tree Analytic Hierarchy Process

Beijing Institute of Technology，Haidian 100081，Beijing，China

Online:2023-09-10 Published:2023-09-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

原油储罐泄漏会造成严重的后果，对原油储罐泄漏事故进行风险识别和分析是罐区安全管理的重要组成部分。基于事故树模型引进层次分析法，共识别和考虑了18个基本事件，通过最小割集求得各基本事件的结构重要度；通过结构重要度确定判断因子；然后构造出判断矩阵，对储罐泄漏风险进行了分析。分析结果显示，阀门失效、设计缺陷、充装过量、储罐缺陷和检修问题等是造成储罐泄漏风险的主要因素。研究工作对储罐泄漏风险的预防和控制提供了理论依据。事故树-层次分析法也被证明可以客观地分析储罐泄漏风险，为储罐的日常安全管理提供了理论支撑。

关键词:

原油储罐泄漏, 事故树, 层次分析法, 风险分析

Abstract:

Leakage of crude oil storage tanks can cause serious consequences，and risk identification and analysis of crude oil storage tank leakage is an important part of tank farm safety management. Based on the fault tree analysis （FTA） model and analytical hierarchical process （AHP），this research identified and incorporated a total of 18 basic events，and quantified the structural importance of each basic event through the minimum cut set. The judgment factor was determined as per the structural importance，and then a judgment matrix was constructed to analyze the risks of tank leakage. The analysis results showed that valve failure，design defects，overfilling，tank defects and overhaul operations are the main contributors to tank leakage risks. The findings of this research provide a theoretical basis for tank leakage risk prevention and control. The FTA-AHP method was also proved to be able to objectively analyze the risk of tank leakage and provide theoretical support for the daily safety management of storage tanks.

Key words:

crude oil tank leakage, fault tree, analytic hierarchy process, risk analysis

中图分类号:

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赵耀, 刘闯, 刘振翼, 李鹏亮. 基于事故树-层次分析法的原油储罐泄漏风险识别[J]. 新疆石油天然气, 2023, 19(3): 80-85.

ZHAO Yao, LIU Chuang, LIU Zhenyi, LI Pengliang. Indentification for Leakage Risks of Crude Oil Tanks Based on Fault Tree Analytic Hierarchy Process[J]. Xinjiang Oil & Gas, 2023, 19(3): 80-85.

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基于事故树-层次分析法的原油储罐泄漏风险识别

Indentification for Leakage Risks of Crude Oil Tanks Based on Fault Tree Analytic Hierarchy Process

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